Friday, March 10, 2006

Precinct 4 & HD 52 Primary Analysis

The Taylor Daily Press has an interesting article, Election shows precinct diversity , showing the disparity that exists between Republican primary voters in Williamson County's Precinct 4. Not only in the commissioners race but in how they voted in the HD 52 race.
When candidates spoke to voters in various forums prior to the March 7 primary election, they generally agreed that Williamson County's Pct. 4, which stretches from the east side of Round Rock to the eastern county line, is very diverse.

An analysis of the voting results for the 12 polling places east of the SH-130 toll road ratify that conclusion.
The commissioners race and the HD 52 race have given us an interesting look into the an emerging dynamic with the Republican voters in precinct 4. From Tuesday's election we can see there is an East/West, or rural/suburban, difference in voting patterns developing in precinct 4. It also shows that those in the Eastern part of the precinct are looking for an alternative or a candidate that doesn't represent the status quo.

There are a few things that need to be analyzed here. This shows a fracture in the Republican voters in precinct 4. Some may say it's because of the low turnout because there was not serious challenger in the governors race and many Republicans sat out the primary. Many of them, not all of those who sat out, may have sat out the primary because of their dislike of Gov. Perry and saw the only alternative to be signing one of the independents petitions. Either way it shows that in precinct 4 there are some previously reliable Republican voters that are at least looking at their options.

The eastern part of precinct 4 is more rural and much, much more concerned about the future route of the Trans-Texas Corridor (TTC), which is responsible for much of this, but why? This means that they feel their issues are being marginalized or forgotten by those that are currently representing them No amount of corn, cotton and computer slogans are going to change that. Say what you will but if someone wanted to, or is willing to go along with those that want to put a freeway through my families property I'm sure I wouldn't vote for them either. It's unaccountable government that's the issue. That's what I've been trying to point out for a long time. The fact that if Williamson County keeps electing Republicans and Republicans only and expects the situation with the TTC to change they're kidding themselves.

If you really want to have a shot at ending the TTC then make sure the current chair of the House Transportation Committee doesn't keep his seat. That's right, Rep. Krusee had serious trouble in the eastern part of precinct 4 as well. He ran almost 9 percentage points lower in the eastern part of the precinct than he did in the precinct all together.
The voting patterns show that Mike Krusee, the incumbent state representative, is less popular east of SH-130 than he is on the west side. Over the entire precinct, Krusee defeated Barbara Samuelson by a margin of 63.76 percent to 36.24 percent, but east of SH-130 Krusee's margin was 55 percent to Samuelson's 45 percent.

In voting precinct 433 in Coupland, where anti-toll road sentiment is strong, Samuelson had 65 votes compared to Krusee's 25. Samuelson also beat Krusee in precinct 456 at Our Lady of Guadalupe by a margin of 15 to 11.
One interesting dynamic to watch in the runoff will be to see if either of the candidates tries some sort of anti-TTC gambit now that it's a two man race.
Coe and Morrison said they'll be studying these returns closely as they prepare for the April 11 runoff, especially in light of their close county-wide race which Coe won by a margin of 34.62 percent to Morrison's 32.67 percent
Remember all of you anti-TTC Republicans and Democrats as well. If you didn't vote in either primary you can vote in this runoff and can still register to vote in the runoff until March 13th. If you voted in the Democratic primary you cannot vote in the commissioners runoff.

This also provides an opportunity for the Democratic Party in this precinct and HD 52. Rural voters who started voting Republican in the late 80's and early 90's in Williamson County because of social issues appear ready to look at an alternative now that they see their family farms and economic livelihood being put in the path of this Republican lead toll road scheme. Whether they didn't vote or if they voted against the status quo, disaffected Republicans need to know that the Democrats in Williamson County are opposed to the TTC and will not sit idly by and allow this to happen when we are elected to office. Remember, your current state representative is for this scheme and neither one of the two remaining Republican commissioner candidates were against it before the runoff. One will probably try to go after your vote by claiming they are now, but I wouldn't buy it if it was my family farm. The only way you can make the commissioners court stands up and take notice is to vote for change in November and change is Brig Mireles and Karen Felthauser.


At 3/11/2006 11:14 AM, Blogger South Willco Man said...

Even though the Taylor Daily Press reported trend distinguishing voters in the east v. west sections of Precinct 4, the analysis on this site failed to point out that Brig Mireles received a total of 554 votes for county commissioner, and all four Republican candiates combined received 2,764 votes. In fact, Gary Coe and Ron Morrison received almost twice as many votes EACH as did Mireles, and Krusee received almost three times as many votes as Felthauser, so it's really a stretch for Democrats to take any solace in this variance of Republican voting which basically backed local candidate, which should be expected anyway.

At 3/11/2006 4:20 PM, Blogger wcnews said...

I apprecitate you expressing your opinions here. But I believe the elections results show there is an opportunity for the Democratic Party and a willingness by the some Republican voters to look at alternatives. I'm not taking solace, just my opinion, so far, of the results. Once again thanks for reading and commenting.


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